I-Style: 2004 in the Usa
Ice has published data (American Department of Trade) on trading between Italy and the Usa in 2004 and details of the trend in the I-Style home/furnishing and fashion segment.
In 2004, the American balance of trade was still negative (over 650 billion dollars) and had increased by about 22 percentage points compared to 2003. This was mainly due to a 17% increase in American imports: a run on private consumption and the growth of corporate investments in technology have added to the weight of the balance of trade; moreover, devaluation against the euro has not yet had the effect of containing buying from abroad which the US government hoped for.
A closer look at the US's major suppliers (Canada, China, Mexico, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, South Korea, Taiwan, France, Malaysia and Italy) show that they have all had considerable increases (China +29%, Germany +13.4%, Canada 15.5%, Italy +10.5%, United Kingdom 8.4%, South Korea +24%, Mexico +12.9%). It should be pointed out that, in order to make a more correct analysis of trading with euro-zone countries, the effects of the exchange rate have been taken into account; compared to 2003, the European currency appreciated by 10% against the dollar in 2004.
But in 2004, overall trading with Italy can be evaluated in two ways. American imports from Italy increased by 10.5% compared to 2003, however, after some considerable time, Italy's market share of total US imports has fallen below the 2% threshold.
Despite these aspects linked to Italy's loss of competitiveness at global level, the I-Style macro-segment, which alone represents 31.3% of Italian exports to the US, gave a significant performance in 2004 which is worthy of note. It also demonstrates that the clamorous drop in Italian exports has not taken place as many people feared, although there are subtle distinctions within individual home/furnishing and fashion sectors.
The 'home/furnishing' segment (furniture, marble, tiles, faucets, lighting, fixtures, household linen) represents 9.9% of the total exported from Italy to the United States. Compared to 2003, lighting (+5%), ceramic tiles (+8,3%) and household linen (+15.9%) achieved excellent results in 2004 . On the other hand, the trend in the furniture sector was very negative and the falloff was over 10 percentage points compared to 2003.
The 'fashion' segment (clothing, footwear, cosmetics/perfumes, yarns/fabrics, goldsmiths/jewelry, eyewear, leather articles, furs) represents 21.4% of all Italian exports to the US, with a value in 2004 of over 6 billion dollars.It is undeniable that, overall, this is the segment that has been more affected by the weak dollar (the share of total exports from Italy to the US and the share of total American imports from other countries is in fact falling), but the discordant trends of the different segments which characterize it are to be underscored.
The considerable downturn in goldsmiths/jewelry continues and stands at over 16% compared to 2003; clothing (+1.14%), footwear (+0.5%) and furs (+2.57%) show very slight percentage increases in dollars.
Compared to 2003, positive two-figure signs come from cosmetics and perfumes (+35.64%), yarns and fabrics (+15.43%), eyewear (+11.12%) and leather articles (+10.73%).In particular, driven by the entire I-Style segment, the Italian cosmetics, perfumes and eyewear sectors have been confirmed as being the most dynamic on the American market in 2004. For eyewear, with the decisive internal back up of the trend in the sunglasses segment, the result is more than significant for what has always been the first reference market for Italian exports of eyewear.
The months that follow will be important for understanding the trend for 2005. In particular, they will verify forecasts by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and by certain American investment banks, according to which the dollar/euro exchange rate should be around 1.39 dollars to the euro in 2005 and 1.40 in 2006; forecasts that could mean a further decline in Italian competitiveness.
